With the Rockstar status of Barack Obama. It's hard to believe him losing in the General Election. However, that may just be the case and the democrats... well, the Obama fans, may not even realize it yet.
Many are taking note that Hilary is stronger in states that a democrat has to carry in the GE.


Taylor Marsh goes into this by showing the polling data of three crucial states(Florida, Ohio, Penn). Each showing that compared to McCain, Hillary does that much better than Obama. Like she said, this may be due to the fact that Hillary wants those votes counted while Obama doesn't. Chances are, if he's the nominee, it will hurt him in the G.E.


Engram released a new blog today addressing this same topic.
While he doesn't proclaim that McCain would win, and insist that he may be missing something, He shows that Obama is lacking power in key states. He's hesistant to think Obama would lose to McCain though due to Obama's Intrade value.

However, in my opinion, Obama's base is probably largest on the internet. And Intrade may count people around the world, instead of not in the U.S only, and people ineligble to vote. Thus, the voting trend may be somewhat distorted.
He makes note that the Wright incident didn't shake up the value of Obama on Intrade and concluded that it didn't mean much to those trading.
I agree, those on the left and far left aren't shaken by it as much as those on the center-left to far right.

Regardless, This is actually nothing new to me, I've had this inkling ever since I read an article weeks back about how Clinton and Obama stood up if this was a GE. The conclusion was that Clinton by and large, carried the states that would help her win. While Obama, didn't. I'll need to find that link again though.

RCP averages out the polls and finds a tie for Clinton and McCain and small lead for McCain against Obama only help supports this.

It doesn't look to good for Obama, the Media's gonna have to throw him another softball for him. Maybe a speech.

(BTW: YAY for first blog post)