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Sino-American Trade War Bunker [Round 3]

Discussion in 'The NF Café' started by mr_shadow, Mar 22, 2018.

  1. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    U.S. President Donald Trump lit a slow-burning fuse on Thursday to launch long-promised anti-China tariffs, but his actions appeared to be more of a warning shot than the start of a full-blown trade war with Beijing.

    A presidential memorandum signed by Trump will target up to $60 billion in Chinese goods with tariffs over what his administration says is misappropriation of U.S. intellectual property, but only after a 30-day consultation period that starts once a list is published.

    Trump gave the Treasury Department 60 days to develop investment restrictions aimed at preventing Chinese-controlled companies and funds from acquiring U.S. firms with sensitive technologies.

    The waiting periods will give industry lobbyists and U.S. lawmakers a chance to water down a proposed target list that runs to 1,300 products, many in technology sectors.

    It also will create space for potential negotiations for Beijing to address Trump's allegations on intellectual property and delay the start of immediate retaliation against U.S. products from aircraft to soybeans.

    "I view them as a friend" Trump said of the Chinese as he started his announcement. "We have spoken to China and we are in the middle of negotiations."

    'FIGHT TO THE END'

    But his actions provoked a belligerent response from China's embassy in Washington, which vowed Beijing would "fight to the end" in any trade war with the United States.

    "We will retaliate. If people want to play tough, we will play tough with them and see who will last longer," Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai said in a video posted to the embassy's Facebook page.

    Stocks fell sharply on Trump's announcement, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 3 percent. Major industrials that could become targets of Chinese trade retaliation slumped further, with aircraft maker Boeing down 5.2 percent and earthmoving equipment maker Caterpillar falling 5.7 percent.

    In addition to punitive tariffs, Trump's memo also directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to challenge China's technology licensing programs at the World Trade Organization. The WTO has repeatedly drawn the ire of the administration but it could provide a resolution that avoids a trade war.

    The steps are based on the results of USTR's eight-month investigation of suspected misappropriation of American technology by China.

    U.S. officials say that probe, undertaken through Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, has found that China engages in unfair trade practices by forcing American investors to turn over key technologies to Chinese firms.

    Trump, who earlier this month announced steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, also wants the Chinese to take action that would lower the $375 billion goods trade deficit that the United States is running with China.

    White House officials told a briefing ahead of the trade announcement that the administration was eyeing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods. They said the figure was based on a calculation of the impact on the profits of U.S. companies that had been forced to hand over intellectual property as the price of doing business in China.

    There was no explanation of the difference between that figure and Trump's $60 billion.

    "Many of these areas are those where China has sought to acquire advantage through the unfair acquisition and forced technology transfer from U.S. companies," said Everett Eissenstat, deputy director of the National Economic Council.

    In addition, Trump will also direct the U.S. Treasury to propose measures that could restrict Chinese investments in the United States, Eissenstat said.

    China has threatened to target U.S. exports of agricultural commodities, in particular the $14 billion in exports of soybeans.

    Reaction from U.S. industry groups sought to strike a balance, applauding the president for tackling the persistent drain of U.S. technology to Chinese competitors, but urging negotiations instead of tariffs.

    "American business wants to see solutions to these problems, not just sanctions such as unilateral tariffs that may do more harm than good," said John Frisbie, president of the US-China Business Council.

    Despite threats of retaliation, China has been keen to portray itself as a defender of globalization, a message that was reinforced in a call between President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron.

    That said, there is a risk of a mounting cycle of retaliation. U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer warned on Wednesday that Washington would take "counter measures" if Beijing targeted U.S. agriculture.

    The biggest risk to world trade over the longer term may not be a tit-for-tat trade war, but the breakdown of global supply chains that feed companies such as U.S. auto giant General Motors Co and Apple Inc.

    "Tensions are likely to escalate further, even without a full-scale trade war. This could disrupt global supply chains and damage investor sentiment," said Dario Perkins, head of global macroeconomics research at TS Lombard, a London-based economic consultancy.

    Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, which are tied to Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, go into effect on Friday. Canada and Mexico have been given initial exemptions from the 25 percent steel and 10 percent aluminum tariffs.

    Lighthizer told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday that the European Union, along with Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea, would also be exempted.

     
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  2. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    China urged the United States on Friday to “pull back from the brink” as President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese goods brought the world’s two largest economies closer to a trade war.

    Trump is planning to impose the tariffs over what his administration says is misappropriation of U.S. intellectual property. A probe was launched last year under Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act.

    “China doesn’t hope to be in a trade war, but is not afraid of engaging in one,” the Chinese commerce ministry said in a statement on Friday.

    “China hopes the United States will pull back from the brink, make prudent decisions, and avoid dragging bilateral trade relations to a dangerous place.”

    In a presidential memorandum signed by Trump on Thursday, there will be a 30-day consultation period that only starts once a list of Chinese goods is published.

    That effectively creates room for potential talks to address Trump’s allegations on intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.

    Trump said he views the Chinese as “a friend”, and both sides are in the midst of negotiations.

    The prospect of a full-blown trade war between the United States and China has sent shivers through economies supplying them, as a fall in demand would be inescapable.

    Feeling the chill, stock markets fell, but perceived safe havens such as government bonds gained.

    Alarm mounted earlier this month after Trump imposed hefty import tariffs on steel and aluminum this month under Section 232 of the 1962 U.S. Trade Expansion Act, which allows safeguards based on “national security”, though that measure had not just targeted Chinese imports.

    In a separate statement, the Chinese commerce ministry unveiled plans to levy duties on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs, which will go into effect on Friday.

    China was considering levying an additional 15 percent tariff on U.S. products including dried fruit, wine and steel pipes and an extra 25 percent duty on pork products and recycled aluminum.

    China has assembled a list of 128 U.S. products in total that could be targeted if the two countries are unable to reach an agreement on trade issues, the ministry said.

     
  3. stream Do something, Naruto!

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    Aaand the Dow Jones is back into negative for the year after falling nearly 3% in a day.
    Thanks a lot Donald :notrust
     
  4. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    The yuan actually appreciated slightly, from ¥6.335 per dollar yesterday to (currently) ¥6.332 per dollar today.

    But that's still not super strong. At the start of the year they were pushing ¥6.277.

    For context the yuan hasn't gone below ¥6.000 since 1994, so that's kind of the major psychological threshold. The day the People's Bank allow it to appreciate to ¥5.999 is the day we'll know they're confident they can live without cheap exports.
     
  5. makeoutparadise I will have my revenge

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    Economic Tariffs, Island building
    When will these come to an end?
    How much Is know about the value of the yuan?
    A cold wind blew from the east past the whitehouse.
    The marbel steps and consitution should still be there.
    It is only the ruling enity that has changed
     
  6. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    U.S. policy toward China has been misdirected for decades and policymakers are now recalibrating ties, Senator Elizabeth Warren told reporters during a visit to Beijing amid heightened trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

    Warren's visit comes as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to implement more than $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods meant to punish China over U.S. allegations that Beijing systematically misappropriated American intellectual property.

    The Massachusetts Democrat and Trump foe, who has been touted as a potential 2020 presidential candidate despite rejecting such speculation, has said U.S. trade policy needs a rethink and that she is not afraid of tariffs.

    After years of mistakenly assuming economic engagement would lead to a more open China, the U.S. government was waking up to Chinese demands for U.S. companies to give up their know-how in exchange for access to its market, Warren said.

    "The whole policy was misdirected. We told ourselves a happy-face story that never fit with the facts," Warren told reporters on Saturday, during a three-day visit to China that began on Friday.

    "Now U.S. policymakers are starting to look more aggressively at pushing China to open up the markets without demanding a hostage price of access to U.S. technology," she said.

    Warren discussed trade issues and North Korea with senior Chinese officials, including Liu He, the vice premier for economic policy, Yang Jiechi, a top diplomat, and the Minister of Defence Wei Fenghe.

    She said she told officials she met that Americans cannot support a more integrated economic system with China if it "fails to respect basic human rights".

    China's ruling Communist Party has tightened controls on society since President Xi Jinping assumed power, from online censorship to a crackdown on activists and non-governmental organizations, though Chinese officials routinely deny accusations of rights abuses.

    Warren also made stops in Japan and South Korea, and she said that U.S. allies in Asia were having trouble understanding Trump's "chaotic" foreign policy.

    North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Trump had earlier exchanged insults and veiled threats of war over North Korea's tests of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, but the U.S. leader made the surprising announcement last month that he was prepared to meet Kim.

    Warren said success for that meeting would mean getting a commitment to discuss verifiable steps to reduce North Korea's nuclear threat, which would require careful negotiations from a State Department whose role has been vastly diminished under Trump, with several high-profile posts unoccupied.

    Trump's efforts to "take the legs out from underneath our diplomatic corps" are a "terrible mistake", she said.

     
  7. Saishin Hajimemashite

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    is implementing new tariffs on meat, fruit and other products from the as retaliation for American duties, heightening fears of a potential trade war between the world's two largest economies.

    Beijing's latest move, announced by its finance ministry in dated April 1, is direct retaliation against taxes approved by President on . Chinese officials had been warning over the last few weeks that their country would take action against the U.S.

    The tariffs begin on Monday, the finance ministry statement said.


    China's Customs Tariff Commission is increasing the tariff rate on pork products and aluminum scrap by 25 percent. It's also imposing a new 15 percent tariff on 120 other imported U.S. commodities, from almonds to apples and berries.

    All told, the extra tariffs will hit 128 kinds of U.S. products, multiple outlets reported. The list of new duties matches , according to Reuters.

    At that time, China said the affected U.S. goods had an import value of $3 billion in 2017 and included wine, fresh fruit, dried fruit and nuts, steel pipes, modified ethanol and ginseng.

    The decision to target $3 billion in U.S. imports is significant, but given the size of the bilateral trading relationship. U.S. goods exported to China in 2016 totaled $115.6 billion, according to

    China's retaliation is "a statement of intent ... but it's not an escalation in our opinion," Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Private Bank, told CNBC on Monday.

    The White House didn't respond to a message from The Associated Press on Sunday seeking comment.

    While China's response was tied to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, it could end up hurting American ranchers and farmers — many of whom are from regions that voted for Trump in 2016. U.S. farmers shipped nearly $20 billion of goods to China in 2017. The American pork industry sent $1.1 billion in products, making China the No. 3 market for U.S. pork.

    Of note, China's trade retaliation is not against Trump's announcement in March that he is planning new tariffs on .

    The White House's planned tariffs are partly aimed at punishing Beijing for allegedly stealing American technology and pressuring U.S. companies to hand it over. Observers have suggested that Beijing may be saving stronger retaliatory measures for a response to that White House plan.

    For Chinese tariffs to have a significant effect, "the U.S. should not be the main producer of that specific product, so China can easily find substitutes when trying to import that product," economists at Natixis said in a note.

    Beijing could also ramp up its response by adding more goods to the 128-strong list.

    "If China can tolerate a large price shock, stemming from the lack of other sourcing countries, or if the domestic market can to some extent be a buffer, it may also extend its measures to a wider set of sectors, such as sub-products in paper, photographic films and cereal," the Natixis note said.

    But "more relevant products in terms of value of U.S. exports can hardly be included if China wants to achieve its Manufacturing 2025 targets," it continued, referring to a 30-year plan to boost China's industrial base.

    Regardless, many fear escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Washington could damage the global economy.

    For one, Nobel Prize-winning economist said, following China's first threat of tariffs on 128 products, that uncertainty about tit-for-tat trade measures could result in an "economic crisis."

    "It's just chaos: It will slow down development in the future if people think that this kind of thing is likely," .

    Beijing has urged Washington to resolve the matter through dialogue and negotiation.

     
  8. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    I'll make a Sino-American Trade War Bunker thread when U.S. tariffs go into effect. :hm
     
  9. Mider Transylvania VM Zombie

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  10. Jerushee Summer days

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    China has far more to lose in a trade war with the USA than the other way around.
     
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  11. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Yuan is back above ¥6.3 to the dollar. :facepalm
     
  12. Kroczilla Well-Known Member

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    Trade Wars: The Orange Menace
    :bury:bury
     
  13. Kroczilla Well-Known Member

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    This is one area I agree with trump though. China's trade policies need to change. However I think it would have been better to first get diplomatic support from other allies to put up a united front against China rather than going at it alone.
     
  14. Pliskin Well-Known Member

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    Even going at it alone without allies would have been better than what he did.

    What he did is put tariffs on allies at the same time he should have build a united front, allowing China to play the 'come to me, I am quite nice compared to Drumpf' card.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
  15. Le Male Absolu Well-Known Member

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    We can get something from that mess.
     
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  16. DonutKid Well-Known Member

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    "It's Obama's fault. He started the trade war, not me."

     
  17. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Every tweet must end in an exclamation mark!
     
  18. DonutKid Well-Known Member

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    How else do you galvanize the people?
     
  19. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped just over 1 percent on Wednesday as big U.S. manufacturers and chipmakers bore the brunt of a deepening trade conflict between China and the United States.

    Boeing and Caterpillar led the slide as a raft of major U.S. firms saw millions knocked off share values by the announcement of tariffs on $50 billion worth of the goods exchanged daily between the world's two largest economies.

    President Donald Trump's claim on Twitter that the two countries were not in a trade war did little to cool fears that have been building since the White House launched new charges on steel and aluminum a month ago.

    The S&P 500 opened below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, and the Dow lost as much as 510 points before recovering some ground to stand 250 points lower at.

    "The level of uncertainty has definitely surged," said Adam Sarhan, Chief Executive of 50 Park Investments in New York. "When you see China retaliate stronger than the U.S. that's a very strong signal that they mean business."

    At 10:48 a.m. ET, the Dow was down 1.02 percent at 23,787.67. The S&P 500 fell 0.71 percent to 2,595.96 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.81 percent at 6,885.06.

    The declines were broad based, with 23 of the Dow's 30 components lower. The industrials index's 1.4 percent slide was the most among the 11 major S&P sectors, as has been the case since the trade war fears surfaced.

    While Washington's list covered many obscure industrial items, Beijing's covers 106 key U.S. imports including soybeans, planes, cars, and chemicals.

    Shares of Boeing, the single largest U.S. exporter to China, tumbled 3.8 percent. Caterpillar fell 3 percent.

    Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler fell between 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent as investors weighed the competing impacts on their global operations and production.

    While manufacturers were the bigger losers as a group, the technology sector's 1.3 percent drop weighed the most on the market.

    Major tech names Apple and the FANG group – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet were down between 0.3 percent and 2.9 percent.

    Chipmakers, many of which have the highest revenue exposure to China among S&P 500 companies, also fell. 28 of the 30 constituents of the Philadelphia semiconductor index were lower.

    "As a sector, technology has the most to lose from a world in which global trade is restricted and of course, some of the subjects of the tariffs, will also be hit," said Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

    Among the few bright spots was housebuilder Lennar, whose shares jumped 6.8 percent after it reported quarterly revenue that beat estimates as it sold more homes at higher prices.

     
  20. Kroczilla Well-Known Member

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    :kobeha:bookerskully
     
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  21. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Mind you this is all happening before either side has actually imposed any tariffs.

    What they're doing is threatening (in some detail) to impose tariffs, and that's what markets are reacting to.

    It's like if I tell you specifically that if you don't do what I want, I'm going to kick you in the balls. Then you threaten me back that if I kick you in the balls you'll punch me in the groin from your half-standing position.

    Regardless of whether either of us actually does it, when the threat is so specific, chances are we'll both invest in jockstraps before showing up to our duel. Just in case.

    Then at the end of the day we'll both have lost the money a jockstrap costs, regardless of whether the other actually hits us in the nuts or not.
     
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  22. Island In the Sun

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    Maybe they can keep throwing around threats until we finally get Trump out of office. Then President Sanders can normalize trade relations again, no harm done. :blobtimistic
     
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  23. DonutKid Well-Known Member

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    Trump's economic knowledge in a nutshell.
     
  24. Benedict Cumberzatch Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon

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    I thought that was a parody account. :blobsweat
     
  25. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    We might be about to find out what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force.
     
  26. Island In the Sun

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    Hopefully not global economic collapse.
     
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  27. Catalyst75 Well-Known Member

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    The Unstoppable Force bounces off and keeps on going in another direction.
     
  28. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    America and China put together are 40% of the world economy (!).

    If they both get taken out I guess it's Indian Century next. :datass
     
  29. Pliskin Well-Known Member

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    To stay in that picture, major time for the EU to invest in the jockstrap business.
     
  30. Subarashii Obaa-chan

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    Yay for veganism and yoga
    Boo for an unchecked gang rape problem, tho
     
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