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Sweden 2018 election & aftermath thread

Discussion in 'The NF Café' started by mr_shadow, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Neither of Sweden's main political blocs is likely to win a majority in an election on Sunday, giving the far-right Sweden Democrats a key role in shaping the next government.

    The center-left bloc, uniting the minority governing Social Democrat and Green parties with the Left Party, is backed by about 40 percent of voters, recent opinion polls show, a slim lead over the center-right Alliance bloc.

    The Sweden Democrats, who oppose immigration and Sweden's continued membership of the European Union, are polling around 18 percent of the vote and would thus hold the balance of power.

    Doing a deal with them would give either bloc a majority. But all the mainstream parties have ruled out cooperating with a party which has roots in the white supremacist fringe, making forming a new government fraught with difficulty.

    Parties are holding their cards close to their chests, but there are a number of options that could break the impasse.

    CENTER-RIGHT MINORITY RULE

    Although the Alliance of the Moderates, Centre, Liberals and Christian Democrats may be smaller than the center-left after the vote, it can probably rely on some kind of support from the Sweden Democrats to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

    A center-right coalition government is seen as the most likely option by bookmakers.

    However, a formal agreement with the Sweden Democrats would very likely see the Centre and Liberal parties, who want looser immigration policies, jump ship.

    The Sweden Democrats have been clear they want influence over policy, particularly on immigration, in return for support.

    "We are prepared to bring down any government we think is not leading Sweden in the right direction," Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson told Reuters in a July interview.

    SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AND GREENS CLING ON

    The Social Democrats and Greens could theoretically retain power if the center-left is the biggest bloc and in the unlikely event that Prime Minister Stefan Lofven survives a mandatory parliament vote after the election on whether to replace him.

    When voting for a prime minister in parliament, a proposal is passed unless a majority of the Riksdag's 349 MPs vote against. This has allowed minority governments to rule.

    Lofven could survive if the Sweden Democrats decide not to back the Alliance in calling for a new prime minister in protest at the Alliance rejecting their policies.

    He might also be able to continue if the Alliance's Centre and Liberal parties abstain.

    The Centre and Liberals have said they do not want to split the Alliance, but that they would look for some kind of cross-party arrangement if it ends up being smaller. Their decision is likely to be key, but they have deliberately avoided specifics.

    A GRAND COALITION

    The Alliance could join a grand coalition with the Social Democrats and possibly the Greens to exclude the Sweden Democrats. The Left Party, Sweden's former Communist party, would also probably be left out.

    But the Moderates - the biggest party in the Alliance - are not interested in cooperating with the Social Democrats and such a deal would also raise questions about democratic accountability. Voters might see the Sweden Democrats as the country's only opposition party.

    SWEDEN DEMOCRATS BECOMING BIGGEST PARTY

    The biggest party does not necessarily get to rule in Sweden. The Social Democrats were bigger than the Moderates from 2006-2014 when the Alliance governed.

    Polls put the Sweden Democrats some way behind the 25 percent support the Social Democrats enjoy. But polls have underestimated support for Jimmie Akesson's party in the past.

    If the Sweden Democrats get top spot, that would put extra pressure on the other parties to either come to an agreement with each other to keep them out or to recognize that democratic legitimacy demands that Akesson's party be given a say.

    Both options would be divisive.

    MODERATE ONE-PARTY RULE

    The Moderates could form a one-party government. That would require support from the Sweden Democrats as well as the smaller center-right parties.

    Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has ruled this out and the Centre and Liberal parties would probably not go along if the Sweden Democrats were given any significant say over policy even while remaining outside the government.

    NEW VOTE

    The speaker of parliament has four goes at giving prime ministerial candidates a run at forming a government. If they all fail, fresh elections must be called.

    There is no formal time limit for negotiations, but the deadline for the budget is Nov. 15.

    If no new government is in place by then, the current government, continuing as care-takers, would put forward a budget until a new cabinet can take office.

     
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  2. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Sweden is one of only 6 left-wing governments remaining in the 28-member European Union.

    The others being Spain, Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, and Malta.
     
  3. Nemesis The Sith Lord

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    Next year you can knock Greece off that list. SYRIZA popularity dropped hard and ND are on average 10 points clear.
     
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  4. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    Can you vote if you reside abroad?
     
  5. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Yep.

    If you live in a city that has a Swedish embassy or consulate (like Hong Kong), you can vote there.

    If there isn't one within reasonable distance, you can also vote by mail.
     
  6. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    When are you going to run for office Shadowbro? As you mentioned, it’s is part of your heritage to run for the Communist party or the Swedish Shadow party.
     
  7. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    AFAIK since Swedish constituencies are geographical (e.g. a city) and there is no "overseas" constituency, I think I'd have to reside in a Swedish county and city to run. So that's be if/when I go back.

    Emigrants are allowed to vote in the last constituency they lived in prior to emigrating.
     
  8. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    But your wife is on Sweden, can you use her riding and say you are currently in school and you will travel back in forth between Stockholm and HongKong? Loophole! :edu
     
  9. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    Or you can write to Gustav and argue that you would be the first overseas Swedish representative.
     
  10. Mider T VM Zombie

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    I was curious if the Social Democrats would be trounced in this election, but I guess it isn't that bad since its Scandanavia. Still...coalition government.

    You're way too excited, simmer down.
     
  11. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    All signs point to us (Social Democrats) doing our worst election of all time.

    The current known bottom is 28%, from way back in 1911, the first election with party lists. (The party organization had actually been founded already in 1889, but prior to 1911 everyone had to run as an independent, so there are no statistics for party performance.)

    And now we're looking at ca. 24%. So 4% below the all-time low.

    BUUUT even then we could theoretically lead the next government if our coalition ends up bigger than the other coalition.
     
  12. Zenith L'osservatore

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    The left is going to get steamrolled across Europe.
     
  13. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    I live in the capital city, elections is a recurring theme as well as what counts as a secondary residence. :edu

    I could give examples but I won’t bore you with Canadian political kerfuffle concerning our Senate.
     
  14. Snake Well-Known Member

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    Here's hoping for a swift and decisive Sweden Democrats victory. :mjpls:
     
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  15. Snake Well-Known Member

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    What about based Norge?
     
  16. Chie Well-Known Member

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    Do you think it's because the Swedish people finally tired the skyrocketing assaults, rapes and shootings committed by imported welfare recipients? Oh, and car fires. Can't forget that one.

    You can't build a civilized society on thievery.
     
  17. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    You fuckin' prick, my name is gone :predator
     
  18. Snake Well-Known Member

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    :cat
     
  19. Chie Well-Known Member

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    Can't build a civilized society off thievery.
     
  20. Mider T VM Zombie

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    Are you auditioning for an internship for Limbaugh? I respect the adjectives and hyperbole.
     
  21. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    The British Empire was built on thievery. The USA was built on thievery. Are you suggesting both societies are not civilized?:froppy
     
  22. Chie Well-Known Member

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    Conquest and innovation isn't thievery.
     
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  23. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    :skully

    Conquest is thievery.
     
  24. zeroantizero Well-Known Member

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    Not in the E.U.

    Also, has a center-right government.
     
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  25. Snake Well-Known Member

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    Isn't European center-right still left in America?
     
  26. Nello dabonair

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    Not true as long as you fully commit and genocide the natives. Nobody respects a halfassed job.
     
  27. zeroantizero Well-Known Member

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    It's more America's left is actually center-right. Or at least has been in recent decades.
     
  28. Snake Well-Known Member

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    Nello join date: Sep 9, 2011
    9
    11
    9/11
    :catstalk
     
  29. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    It's definitely the case that this election is a referendum on immigration, and the Sweden Democrats have the greatest credibility on that issue.

    Here's the Poll of Polls prediction of the result:

    1. Social Democrats (25.1%)
    2. Sweden Democrats (18.3%)
    3. Moderates (17.0%)
    4. Left Party (10.1%)
    5. Center Party (8.5%)
    6. Christian Democrats (6.5%)
    7. Liberals (6.1%)
    8. Greens (5.6%)

    -. Other (2.8%) [Parties who win less than 4% of the vote do not get seats]

    By coalition

    Center-left (40.8%)
    Center-right (38.1%)
    Sweden Democrats (18.3%)

    So you can see that actually the Social Democrats are still the most popular party as well as the most popular coalition, despite the exodus to SD. And unless SD can pull another 30% out of their ass, Åkesson is not going to be Prime Minister even if his party becomes the largest.
     
  30. Pliskin Well-Known Member

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