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The Brexit Countdown Thread (Oct 31)

Discussion in 'The NF Café' started by mr_shadow, Oct 2, 2019.

  1. Ruthless Tsuchikage

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    Wasn't the demonization of Germany also used during the Referendum itself? In general Eurosceptics love to pretend Germany never changed for the better in order to claim the EU is just the fourth reich achieved by different means. Kinda disgusting since no nation in the history of this planet ever regretted its misdeeds so much and atoned for them so strongly as Germany.
     
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  2. Saishin

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    Hmm I'm doubtful,no country want really to give up all its sovereignity,I'm pessimistic about a real united europe,this mean erase the national identity of the single states,plus where do you put the capital? who gonna be the head of state,I mean it's pretty an utopia,in my opinion more united than currently is the EU can't get unless someone by force impose such unification to everyone even against their will.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2019 at 4:57 PM
  3. dergeist

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    That is the end game, you will be forced to do sign up if you don't leave. It takes only one treacherous government to covertly sign it's people to it. They may try and use the weight of the rest against a nation or their debt levels to bring them to heel(under their foot). That is while bombarding you with the message of how wonderful the prospect is on a day in day out basis. They will bring "experts" on TV, who will tell you it's benefits. You can't defy the experts, now can you? :oldshrug

    Well that is how I see them attempting to do it, if it doesn't all fall apart.
     
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  4. Zeit

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    Because the alternative will be individual European nations at the mercy of regional and global hegemons in an increasingly closer, more competitive world. Look at the trade deals being offered to a post-EU UK and compare them to those negotiated by the EU, compare internal and external markets and buying power, contrast soft and hard power. To borrow a phrase from IndyRef 1, we're better together. Would you trust the United States or China to look after your interests as a European more than someone from the country next door?

    As for the giving up sovereignty and national identity, take the example of the UK, a country literally created by not one but two supposedly democratic Acts of Union in the last 300 years. It's entirely possible to layer both sovereignty (state and federal levels of government) and identity (e.g. Londoner > English > British) without losing either.

    "The EU will put people on television who'll tell you you'll have a provably better standard of life as part of the EU."

    What absolute bastards. :carlton
     
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  5. Nemesis Moderator

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    Somewhat but it was more "The refugees are coming." angle by a number that really pushed it. Even using nazi era style posters about them.

     
  6. blk

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    I personally don't care too much about national identity. My patriotism/nationalism is very low to non existent.

    I care more about human development in the most comprehensive sense, and if ditching the nation state to achieve more of it is necessary, then so be it.

    But i understand that many other people do care about that, so it's definitely not gonna be an easy or fast transition.
    Maybe it outright won't happen as you say.

    The capital i would say could be in either Brussels, Strasbourg or Luxembourg. Most likely Brussels tho.

    Head of state could be the President of the European Council.

    But really those are details, if there is the will to create an European federation they will be resolved by default.

    I think a starting point will be the integration of the armed forces.

    If an European army is created, or the integration between the single european armies is final, then that's a point of no return pretty much.

    Also have you heard about Volt? It's a pan european party that has the creation of an European federation as the end game.
    It's still small but its major presence is in Italy right now.

    Why are you framing that (greater european integration up to a federation) as a bad thing?
     
  7. dergeist

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    I don't see the good in it, especially with a centralised authority trying to run and manage(control) everything. Telling people how they should behave and what they're allowed to do. Not taking their national considerations into account, economic or otherwise. Most importantly I saw how they've violated Greece. That was at a lesser level of control, now imagine that amplified for other nations the closer they get to it. Perhaps, when they have an army at their disposal then people will learn the reality of it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 7:08 AM
  8. Ruthless Tsuchikage

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    I never really understood what the Eurosceptics are afraid of. The EU is not an empire of subjugated states. The member states that make up the union all joined because they chose to join and they all have a seat on the table. Member state can influence the EU proceedings and the politician that form the leadership of the EU are both from the member states and frequently a whole less powerful than the national leaders.

    The worst case scenario is that the countries bend towards each other and that sometimes a particular country might not get their way on one subject but get their way on another subject.

    Member states will always have influence and power in the EU but if we blow it up we will be subjugated by hostile foreign power and we will not influence or power, we will not be bending to each other but bowing to hostile powers and we will not have a seat on any table. The only chose Europe has is whether they accept this subjugation or if they band together to protect themselves and their neighbors.
     
  9. Zeit

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    From my experience dealing with right-wing British (mainly English) ones, they remember (but won't actually admit) how the Empire treated it's "lessers" and believe the EU will do the same eventually to them. Doesn't matter how much you explain and demonstrate that the EU works entirely on a democratic consent basis they just see it as some Franco-German plot to take over the UK (and the rest of Europe but only really the UK matters to them) and they'll buy into every nonsense declaration (e.g. the EU made Ireland revote on Nice to get the result they wanted!") because it fits their world view.

    Ironically the same people absolutely cannot fathom why Ireland fought to leave the UK, why Northern Ireland is a basket case and why the Scots could possibly think they might be better off independent.
     
  10. blk

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    Free trade of goods, services and free movement of people and capital, a common currency. What do you dislike about this?

    Eventually (i hope at least) fiscal union and military union.

    Note that lack of fiscal union is a major reason why Greece had such a big crisis.

    Also i'm not sure what you mean by "telling people how to behave". Are you suggesting that the EU is anything like a tyrannical institution?
    If anything, European countries left to themselves are more likely to develop authoritarianism.

    I can see local examples of businesses that trade mostly with other european countries (i'm italian), such as France and Germany, and that have grown tremendously because of this.
    Two of my friends (and many other people) are employed in one that makes aluminum profiles and pretty much has 90% french customers. I could also work there if i didn't already have a job.

    Now the owners of this business (which are locals) are rich and many people have jobs that perhaps they wouldn't have found here otherwise.

    This is just one example of how economic integration benefits people in a practical sense.

    For example, would you think that the USA would be better off as a set of 50 separate states? Instead of a united federation with a single integrated market, currency, fiscal policy, army, etc?
     
  11. dergeist

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    Pretty much all of it apart from free trade of goods and services. And I especially hate one currency and the EU drive towards ever closer union.

    Anyway, nothing you said addresses my issues with the EU. I am in favour of decentralization, I always have been.
     
  12. dergeist

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    Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar see 'pathway' to Brexit deal after talks

    The two men hold "detailed and constructive" discussions at a wedding venue on the Wirral head of next week's EU summit.


    Boris Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar have agreed there is a "pathway to a possible deal" following "detailed and constructive" Brexit talks.

    The prime minister and his Irish counterpart met at Thornton Manor on The Wirral, Merseyside, for what their offices had billed as a "private meeting" ahead of next week's summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

    In a joint statement after the talks, the two sides said: "The prime minister and Taoiseach have had a detailed and constructive discussion.

    "Both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody's interest. They agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal.

    "Their discussion concentrated on the challenges of customs and consent.

    "They also discussed the potential to strengthen bilateral relations, including on Northern Ireland.

    "They agreed to reflect further on their discussions and that officials would continue to engage intensively on them."

    Following their discussion, Mr Varadkar will consult with the EU's Brexit taskforce, while Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will meet with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier on Friday morning.

    The pound spiked following the pair's joint statement, climbing by more than half a cent to nearly $1.23 against the US dollar.

    Mr Varadkar tweeted pictures prior to the meeting, also writing: "Looking forward to a detailed discussion to see if we can make any progress."

    A small protest staged by pro-EU campaigners was seen outside the Thornton Manor venue as the two men met.

    The conference and events centre had previously been best-known for hosting Coleen Rooney's 21st birthday party, as well as the wedding venue of TV presenter Paddy McGuinness and his wife Christine Martin.

    The statement from Mr Johnson and Mr Varadkar appeared to offer a more hopeful verdict on the chances of a Brexit deal at next week's EU summit than Mr Barnier had offered on Wednesday.

    The EU official had told the European Parliament the UK and EU were "not really in a position where we are able to find an agreement".

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Paris for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, ahead of the EU summit.

    Ms Merkel spoke openly about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on Thursday, saying: "We want to reduce the negative effects, even if there is a disorderly Brexit, in both countries."

    And Mr Macron also spoke of the UK possibly leaving the EU on 31 October without a withdrawal agreement.

    "If they want to make a move which is compatible with what could be accepted by the 27, it is fine," he said.

    "If they don't want to make any move or make something which is not accepted, they will have to take the responsibility."

    Mr Johnson has unveiled new plans for the post-Brexit Irish border, having vowed to scrap the backstop arrangement agreed between Brussels and his predecessor Theresa May.

    The backstop, criticised as "anti-democratic" by the prime minister, was designed as an insurance mechanism to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland regardless of the future EU-UK trade relationship.

    Mr Barnier has said the UK's Irish border proposals are "not something we can accept", and Mr Varadkar has also been cool on the plans.

    He told the Irish parliament on Wednesday that Mr Johnson's insistence that Northern Ireland must leave the EU's customs union with the rest of the UK was blocking progress in reaching an agreement.

    Mr Johnson has vowed to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October "do or die".

    However, legislation passed by opposition MPs last month will compel him to seek an extension to the Article 50 period if he fails to secure a Brexit deal - or the House of Commons explicitly approves a no-deal Brexit - by 19 October.

    Parliament will, rarely, sit on a Saturday that day following the conclusion of the previous day's EU summit.

    Mr Johnson has repeatedly promised not to delay Brexit beyond the end of this month.


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.s...ng-venue-for-last-ditch-brexit-talks-11832073
     
  13. Nemesis Moderator

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    So how do you compete with the likes of China/india/USA as a small pathetic nothing nation that any European country is. Small countries never capable of saying no to the big boys.

    What is wrong with freedom of movement. Why should people who were born wrong side over some line on map be treated differently
     
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  14. dergeist

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    You can view yourself as pathetic if you like, I don't. In the tech economy that is coming and growing year on year, competition isn't really a problem. The sooner nations adapt and accept it they can keep up with the new world. Also, another point as for competing with those that debase their currency then it's a race to the bottom. Anyhow, once we leave we won't be tied down to a protectionist club and will be gorced to adapt or become irrelevant. It will work out better for us in the long term so all is good. And we won't have to clean up anybody's shit, as Merkle put it.

    As for freedom of movement, there's quite a lot wrong with it. I don't mind points based migration though.

    One more thing, China has an aging population time bomb growing and about to explode. Ot also has ever declining birth rates. The sun will set on that economy. As for India there's no need to compete with nothing substantive, tbh.

    Edit: I forgot to mention having decentralised government doesn't necessarily mean you can't have a uniform trade policy. However, it shouldn't be is shouldn't be anti-competitive otherwise you will never grow adapt and become better. Instead you will be relegated to irrelevance which isn't good for anybody.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019 at 12:30 PM
  15. blk

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    Why not freedom of movement too? Both of people and capital. If i remember correctly there is empirical research proving that those are beneficial for economies.

    But even from a theoretical perspective, it's no different than free movement of goods for example. The framework is the same.

    I don't see how you could possibly be pro decentralization if you are against freedom of movement and a common free market. Maybe you are talking about a political decentralization at the nation state level, which i don't see as very beneficial.
    At least compared to having a freer economic system and a single democratic federal state.

    An European federation, again such as the US, would still be plenty decentralized, politically, within itself. While still retaining the positives of centralization (as i've wrote, a central fiscal policy for example would have diminished or averted the Greek crisis that you mentioned).

    Other than that i'm just not really sure what your issues are with it.

    You seem to imply that it's some kind of hyper centralized institution which decides (or will decide) everything for everybody, as if it was the URSS.
    Which is just false, so i don't know what to tell you.

    If it's a matter of nationalism/patriotism, then we won't find a common ground because i have no such patriotic feelings. I view the state, institutions, etc, just as tools to help in human development.
    If new institutions arise that can better help such development, i would have no problem in supporting them instead of the older nation state.
     
  16. dergeist

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    It's not, it depresses wages and the infrastructure necessary costs too much to build relative to benefit. The movement of low skilled labour tends to be enmasse and cause of major problems, including rent inflation as well as wage deflation. Especially in countries were many people are low skilled.

    A common market can exist without a central ruling body. The EU was originally a common trading block.

    No it wouldn't the US never worked towards ever closer union. Neither was their president or commission appointed. It can't work in a block with nation states, with their own ideals, languages,cultures, and deep heritage. As for the problems with Greece, because of a common currency Greece and other countries were able to borrow at German interest rates. Had they had their own rates they wouldn't have had such a problem. It created and creates major distortions in the market. Especially for countries that have totally different ideals and ideas.

    It already has unelected officials governing it and deciding everything, so yes it will be closer to the USSR, even if it's not entirely there.

    Who knows, where I stand. However, this institution isn't going to benefit human development, imo. It may benefit some nations(lesser in development) at the expense of others(more developed nations), but that's not really benefit.
     
  17. mr_shadow Moderator

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    About this:

    Japan surpassed the GDP of the United Kingdom in 1967. But since the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble and general stagnation of the country, they've had slower GDP growth than the UK since essentially 1992 (there are scattered exceptions in 1995, 1996, 2010, and 2017).

    Yet in spite of Japan being essentially knocked out cold from its demographic crisis, they had worked up such an astronomical lead during the boom years 1967-1992 that the UK still hasn't caught back up, even with the target is standing almost still. The difference in GDP between the two is still $2 trillion, equivalent to the whole economy of Italy.




    What I'm trying to say with this is that China will likely also remain an economic superpower even if their growth slows to near-zero, just on the strength of the size they've already amassed. The United Kingdom is never going to close the, in this case, $10 trillion lead that China has built up since surpassing you in 2006.

     
  18. dergeist

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    While what you say is correct, Japan's population crisis happened much later relative to it's aging population crisis. China doesn't have a decent social security system in place for that demographic, as far as I know. That is unless you have knowledge to the contrary(being there and all).

    Also the other major issue for China is the popluation of unmarried people and single child families. That means there won't be anybody around to support the next generation so a welfare state will become unsustainable relatively quickly. The lack of people will have cause major problems on internal consumption, which will affect China's efforts to develop their internal consumption based economy.

    And the factor I forgot that everybody overlooks, asians in general are conservative spenders and mainly savers. That too will have compund the problem, imo.

    Do you agree or disagree?
     
  19. Zeit

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    The only shift that could've occurred to bring about a deal in the next three weeks would be if BoJo has thrown the DUP under the bus and kept Northern Ireland in the Customs Union. I'll believe it when I see concrete evidence rather than Leo's usual plámásing.
     
  20. dergeist

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    What if BoJo has offered ROI a referendum in NI joining ROI or staying with the UK? I wouldn't put something like that past BoJo as a way to break the deadlock. Varadkar seemed too cheerful for my liking. Anyway, if he has then he should be going for a clean break, imo.
     
  21. Zeit

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    It's highly unlikely IMO but not impossible, Leave/Remain isn't divided exclusively along the Unionist/Nationalist divide so even a "remain part of the UK vote" wouldn't be a conclusive vote for Hard Brexit unless that was specifically, explicitly listed as the terms of the referendum beforehand. Not to mention you couldn't hold a Border Poll in three weeks anyway, look at all the prep that went into the IndyRef.
     
  22. stream

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    Well, realistically, some have a bigger seat than the others. Some small countries are afraid they'll get pushed around, so there needs to be a balance to make sure that it's not always the same who get what they want. And on the other side, some big countries are afraid that those checks and balances will end up dragging then down too much.

    If you check the US, people in big coast states are often complaining that the states in the middle have too much weight on government despite having small populations; and of course the states in the middle complain about the coast states throwing their weight about and ignoring their issues. Another example is the UK, and how Scotland is always complaining about England. Or even rural England complaining about London.

    Joining the EU means you lose some control, and it's justified to question whether what you gain is worth what you lose. It does make sense to have a powerful union, and all countries benefit as a whole; but apparently it's not enough for everybody.
     
  23. blk

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    It's not that easy.

    Labor supply increases but demand for goods also increases simply because there are more people, therefore labor demand increases too to satisfy the greater demand of goods and services.

    Secondly, your conclusion assumes that the migrant's skills are mostly the same as those of the natives and thus there is direct competition between them. Which is by no means necessarily true, labor is in most cases heterogeneous, it complements itself.

    And at worst this is a problem only in the short to medium term anyway, the economy eventually readjusts by developing more specialized job positions, which generally augment efficiency.

    There are research that show how free movement of people (i.e labor) could have one of the greatest effect in economic growth, much more than free movement of goods, services and capital.



    The nation state system causes a massive distortion in the labor market by artificially limiting mobility. Any real pro free market advocate would recognize this (but right wing populists have never been really pro free market).

    Sure it can, but exiting the EU takes the UK decades back in that aspect. So again, not really beneficial for free trade.

    Also other freedoms and integration aspects, which brings us closer to a true free market system, get nullified and would likely never been implemented again (by the UK).

    What? The US is more centralized than the EU.
    EU's countries have way more power than the EU's institutions, compared to how much power the US's states have in respect to their federal government.

    We all agree that monetary union without fiscal union creates problem, that's why fiscal union is needed. If Greece were to go out of the EU it would become much poorer.

    Cultures change overtime, and different cultures can coexist anyway (if they are not too fundamentally different, which they are not in the case of European countries) that's not a problem (unless people want it to be, which i think is what euroskeptics want).

    Like whom? In which cases does it "decides everything"?

    It is pretty democratic overall considering the power of the parliament, i don't see how it could devolve in an authoritarian state if it ever becomes a state.




    Freedom of trade and movement benefit everyone, regardless of being more or less developed, especially in the long run. That's a theoretical, empirical and historical fact.

    In fact, it's pretty much certain that UK's economy will shrink in the long term because of their choice.



    It's possible that there will be negative effects in higher education, science and technology too (the bottom lines of endogenous growth in the long term).



    And who knows how many other negative externalities unaccounted for.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019 at 8:06 AM
  24. dergeist

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    That's not how it works, for lesser goods which can be manufactured you may have a point. However, fixed good don't increase fast enough to satisfy demand, which is why rents rise as do property prices. In the UK it reached a point where you couldn't even get school places for kids in many places as well doctors appointments for yourself. They would have a phone appointments instead. The infrastructure just isn't there to support such levels of migration.

    This is correct to a degree, however in the UK low skilled sectors suffered because of migration. Low skilled jobs and skills are generally the same across the board and not very hard for migrants to pick up either.

    Clearly it didn't in our case.

    The bold are the key words here and self explanatory. In the UK's case wage depression was the major issue, oversupply of people, while having rising costs for everything. That may add a few points to the GDP, but had and has negative connotations overall.

    A free market can only work if there's a sound monetary standard outside of government control(free from manipulation). A system that also allows for barter(a market is free after all). And no nation in the world has one at the moment. In a world where money can be printed out of thin air and manipulated, safeguards are necessary to ensure stability to maintain some semblance of a free market. That includes limiting the oversupply of Labour.


    None of that is true, it takes us further forward. Fats with mutual recognition are the way forward leading towards a free market.

    Harmonisation is actually market interference at the state level, and then limiting access further impedes the free market. Also interfering in external competition, by limiting their access are also impediments to a free market.


    Their process has developed over a few hundred yeara. Anyway, the states still have the ability to challenge the federal government on issues and they're still democratically elected representatives in the Senate and congress.

    That's why monetary union should be eliminated and the block return to just a trading block no? As for Greece becoming poorer, absolutely bot. Sure they would experience a shock, however once they have their own cheaper currency they will be able to increase their exports.

    They do change, however the ideals of different nations in the EU are different. They have lingual, cultural and other differences. They allow coexistence, but not subservience to a centralised treasury or government.



    The unelected commission, the sole body that proposes legislation. They also decide the direction of the EU and aren't accountable. The Parliament only gets to vote on whatever they've decided. That's not really democratic since Parliament can't propose legislation or amendments.



    Freedom of low skilled movement, no. Yes the freedom of goods and services benefits every body. Totuting the former as an imperial fact is wrong.

    As for Brexit making us poorer, I don't believe nonsense predictions. The currency is manipulated by the bank of England, as are interest rates and fiscal stimulus as well as cutting taxes is in the hands of the government. They can stimulate the economy and direct it however they want.


    The bold should answer the assertion. The only fact is we will be able to invest in our economy, engineering and educational sectors how we like. I see the future in a tech based economy and I see the UK being able to embrace it fully without being tied down by the EU.

    Anyway, I'm not here to re-run the referendum, but the points still stand.
     
  25. Nemesis Moderator

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    The so called unelected commission works the same way as the uks unelected civil service in Whitehall.

    They take the orders from the elected Parliament. Nothing gets done without the European Parliament and elected head of government's approvals.
     
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  26. ClandestineSchemer

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    From what "Yes, (prime)minister" taught me, Whitehall is the one that actually has the de facto power.
    Thatcher said the series is uncannily accurate and she should know.
    Plus the bumbling buffoons they have elected show the series is true even today, if not even more so.

    So bad example.
     
  27. Nemesis Moderator

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    Flag:
    Sokovia






    Major and Blair reduced the power of the civil service so their not as powerful as they were during the 70s and 80s.
     
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