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Megathread The Coronavirus Pandemic Megathread

Discussion in 'The NF Café' started by Saishin, Jan 19, 2020.

  1. Saishin

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    It started with a few cases of what seemed like pneumonia.

    Chinese authorities reported on December 31 that 41 people in Wuhan, the most populous city in central China, were afflicted with a pneumonia-like illness. The likely source of the outbreak was the local Huanan seafood market, which sells live animals. The market closed a day after the outbreak was reported.

    By January 7, Chinese authorities had determined that the illness was a new type of coronavirus: a large family of viruses that typically affect the respiratory tract.

    The a few days later; local officials .

    The virus has now spread to Thailand and Japan. A 61-year-old female tourist in Thailand was diagnosed on Tuesday. She'd recently spent time in Wuhan but said she did not visited the now-shuttered seafood market. The woman did visit another local market with live animals, though.

    Japan's health ministry reported Wednesday that as well. That patient recently came back from a trip to China, where he did not visit any seafood markets, according to the ministry.

    "It is possible that the patient had close contact with an unknown patient with lung inflammation while in China," the ministry said in a statement.

    The World Health Organization has said there's no clear evidence that the virus can be transmitted between humans — most likely it just passes from animals to people. But the two cases outside of China have called that into question.

    On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that three US airports — New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, San Francisco International Airport, and Los Angeles International Airport — will begin screening passengers for the virus.

    If the virus were to somehow morph into a pandemic (a far cry from the situation right now), the world wouldn't be remotely prepared, according to Bill Gates.

    "In the case of biological threats, that sense of urgency is lacking," Gates said hosted by the New England Journal of Medicine. "The world needs to prepare for pandemics in the same serious way it prepares for war."

    The virus belongs to the same family as SARS, the source of a fatal epidemic in China

    Some of the patients who contracted the new virus reported symptoms such fever, chills, headaches, and sore throat. A few had difficulty breathing.

    Coronaviruses can lead to illnesses like the common cold, pneumonia, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a potentially fatal illness that hasn't been reported anywhere since 2004.

    A viral outbreak of SARS that started in China in November 2002 resulted in 8,000 cases and 774 deaths by July 2003. The outbreak spread to dozens of countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia. Recent research suggests that it may have spread to humans from horseshoe bats.

    Though Chinese officials don't expect the new coronavirus to spread from human to human, they have quarantined patients and closely observed anyone who has been in close contact with them.

    Airports in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea are also closely screening passengers for fever. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to travel throughout China later this month for the Lunar New Year.

    Gates thinks a pandemic could kill 30 million people in less than a year

    Gates considers a deadly pandemic to be , next to climate change and nuclear war.

    He has repeatedly warned about what might happen if the world were struck by a like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed 50 million people. A similar scenario today might kill more than 30 million people in less than a year, Gates said in his presentation.

    The statistic comes from the Institute for Disease Modeling, which predicts that the world will experience such an outbreak in the next 10 to 15 years. One possible source of the virus could be animals such as birds, chicken, or pigs.

    "More than 60% of human disease, particularly related to infections, are coming from animals," Victor Dzau, the president of the National Academy of Medicine, Insider. "The fact that animals are not living in the forest but we are domesticating them ... putting them in crowded conditions close to humans, that's really a very big factor."

    Animal-borne diseases can morph to jump to humans and spread between people, especially among travelers or in dense urban areas. Rising global temperatures also .

    Gates thinks more vaccines could help us prepare

    Though the world is armed with antiviral drugs and antibiotics, Gates has said, new vaccines would likely be necessary to address and prevent future epidemics. That's because , finding new ways to mutate or jump from their host to other species.

    In for Business Insider, Gates wrote that the process of creating a vaccine takes too long — about 10 years for development and licensing. He estimated that = process would need to be reduced to 90 days or less to prevent deaths from an airborne pathogen.

    Gates also said countries should routinely monitor their populations for signs of an outbreak. Once a new virus strikes, the countries could then share that information with the rest of the world, in addition to coordinating with military and medical professionals to control the spread of the virus.

    "The irony is that the cost of ensuring adequate pandemic preparedness worldwide is estimated at $3.4 billion a year — yet the projected annual loss from a pandemic could run as high as $570 billion," Gates wrote. "Even if the next pandemic isn't on the scale of the 1918 flu, we would be wise to consider the social and economic turmoil."

     
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  2. Schneider

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  3. wibisana

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    You know what good idea is? Not putting anti biotics into animal farm

    Coz one day we will get antibiotic resistant bacteria which can wipe us all.
     
  4. hammer

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    haha, thanks. I've been shut inside my room this past 6 months since I don't need to go outside so I've been safe. Also I don't know abut shadow but I feel my area of china is generally safer from outbreaks.(maybe?) but I guess it just takes one person to hop on the train to infect everyone.
     
  5. mr_shadow Moderator

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    I try not to panic.

    With China having the world's largest population and third-largest area, it's inevitable that there's all kinds of weird pathogens lurking out there. They say that the Black Death originated in Yunnan, after all.
     
  6. wibisana

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    so was SARS iirc
    when people start exploit untaped resources in forest/mountain/lake etc. there always chance that we will awake dormant virus/bacteria.

    no to mention he permafrost ice melt could also open another ancient/old outbreak
     
  7. Saishin

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    You live in China? :hmm
    Could these virus the result of lack hygiene? I mean after all China isn't famous for its food control standards,what are the conditions of farms in China?
     
  8. hammer

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    I've spent most of my adult life in Sichuan. but now I go in and out for work
     
  9. Utopia Realm

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    Hope you cats in China stay safe. I've watched enough health movies like Contagion to know how outbreaks can turn super deadly.
     
  10. kluang

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    1820 Cholera Outbreak
    1920 Spanish Flu
    2020
     
    • Informative Informative x 3
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  11. Yamato

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  12. Amol

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    Is it T-Virus?
     
  13. mr_shadow Moderator

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    An outbreak of a new coronavirus has spread to more Chinese cities, including the capital Beijing and Shanghai, authorities said on Monday, and a fourth case has been reported beyond China’s borders.

    China’s National Health Commission confirmed that the virus, which causes a type of pneumonia, can pass from person-to-person, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

    President Xi Jinping said curbing the outbreak and saving lives was a top priority as the number of patients more than tripled and a third person died.

    Adding to the difficulties of containing it, hundreds of millions of Chinese will be traveling domestically and abroad during the Lunar New Year holiday that starts this week.

    Authorities around the globe, including in the United States and many Asian countries, have stepped up screening of travelers from Wuhan, the central city where the virus was first discovered.

    “Wuhan is a major hub and with travel being a huge part of the fast approaching Chinese New Year, the concern level must remain high. There is more to come from this outbreak,” said Jeremy Farrar, a specialist in infectious disease epidemics and director of the Wellcome Trust global health charity.

    Authorities confirmed a total of 217 new cases of the virus in China as of 6 p.m. local time (1000 GMT) on Monday, state television reported, 198 of which were in Wuhan.

    Five new cases were confirmed in Beijing and 14 more in Guangdong province, the report said. Another statement confirmed a new case in Shanghai, bringing the number of known cases worldwide to 222.

    “People’s lives and health should be given top priority and the spread of the outbreak should be resolutely curbed,” President Xi was quoted as saying by state television.

    The virus belongs to the same family of coronaviruses as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed nearly 800 people globally during a 2002/03 outbreak that also started in China.

    Its symptoms include fever and difficulty in breathing, which are similar to many other respiratory diseases and pose complications for screening efforts.

    Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory expert and head of the health commission team investigating the outbreak, confirmed that two cases of infection in Guangdong province were due to human-to-human transmission, Xinhua said. Some medical staff have been infected, it added, but gave no number.

    BEYOND BORDERS

    South Korea on Monday confirmed its first case, a 35-year-old Chinese national who had traveled from Wuhan, the fourth patient reported outside China.

    Last week, two cases were reported in Thailand and one in Japan. All three involved people from Wuhan or who recently visited the city.

    A report by London Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis estimated that by Jan. 12 there were 1,723 cases in Wuhan City with onset of related symptoms. Chinese health authorities have not commented directly on the report.

    “This outbreak is extremely concerning. Uncertainty and gaps remain, but it is now clear that there is person to person transmission,” Farrar said.

    The World Health Organization said on Monday “an animal source” appeared most likely to be the primary source of the outbreak and that some “limited human-to-human transmission” occurred between close contacts.

    China’s state council reiterated the government will step up prevention efforts and find the source of infection and transmission channels as soon as possible, state television said on Monday.

    Shares in pharmaceutical firms and mask makers in China surged Monday because of the outbreak.

    “Who knows how many people who have been to Wuhan may be unaware that they have already been infected?,” said one commentator on Chinese social media platform Weibo

    The state-run Global Times newspaper said in an editorial the government needs to disclose all information and not repeat the mistakes made with SARS. Chinese officials covered up the SARS outbreak for weeks before a growing death toll and rumors forced it to reveal the epidemic.

    “Concealment would be a serious blow to the government’s credibility and might trigger greater social panic,” the editorial said.

     
  14. mr_shadow Moderator

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    It's like we've got all the Horsemen of the Apocalypse descending on China...

    War (Hong Kong)
    Famine (economic slowdown)
    Pestilence (coronavirus)
     
  15. Jake CENA

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    why are you guys wondering why China is having an outbreak?

    most people there don't even take a bath and don't know any basic hygiene
     
  16. Canute87

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    And the fourth?
     
  17. Jim

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    Those that benefit from using them in farms probably won't be around for when we get strong resistant strains that threaten large amounts of humans.
     
  18. Nemesis Moderator

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    With the Arctic permafrost we likely will be ok. If those were frozen before humans came into existance then simply put the viruses and bacteria can't infect us as they've not evolved to do so.
     
  19. Saishin

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    SARS-like virus spreads to Beijing and South Korea, fueling outbreak fears

    JAN 20, 2020

    BEIJING – A mysterious SARS-like virus has killed a third person, spread around China and reached a third Asian country, authorities said Monday, fueling fears of a major outbreak as millions begin traveling for the Lunar New Year in humanity’s biggest migration.

    The new coronavirus strain, first discovered in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, has caused alarm because of its connection to SARS — severe acute respiratory syndrome — which killed nearly 650 people across mainland China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003.

    Wuhan has 11 million inhabitants and serves as a major transport hub, including during the annual Lunar New Year holiday which begins later this week and sees hundreds of millions of Chinese people travel across the country to visit family.

    A third person was confirmed to have died and 136 new cases were found over the weekend in Wuhan, the local health commission said, taking the total number of people to have been diagnosed with the virus in China to 201.

    South Korea on Monday reported its first case — a 35-year-old woman who flew in from Wuhan. Previously, Thailand reported two cases and Japan reported one case. All three of those patients had visited Wuhan.

    No human-to-human transmission has been confirmed so far, but authorities have previously said the possibility “cannot be excluded.”

    Health authorities in Beijing’s Daxing district said two people who had traveled to Wuhan were treated for pneumonia linked to the virus and are in stable condition.

    In southern Guangdong province, a 66-year-old Shenzhen man was quarantined on Jan. 11 after contracting a fever and showing other symptoms following a trip to visit relatives in Wuhan, the provincial health commission said. He is also in stable condition.

    Shenzhen officials said another eight people were under medical observation.

    “Experts believe that the current epidemic situation is still preventable and controllable,” the Guangdong health commission said.

    Five other people have been put in isolation and tested in eastern Zhejiang province.

    At Beijing’s crowded central railway station, some travelers wore masks as a precaution but were not too concerned about the virus.

    “Watching the news, I do feel a little worried. But I haven’t taken precautionary measures beyond wearing regular masks,” said Li Yang, a 28-year-old account manager who was heading home to the northern region of Inner Mongolia for the Lunar New Year.

    A 26-year-old woman surnamed Guo, who was heading to northeast Liaoning province, said she and her friends generally avoided crowded areas and have been reminding each other to wear masks.

    A seafood market is believed to be the center of the outbreak in Wuhan, but health officials have reported that some patients had no history of contact with the facility.

    The World Health Organization said on Twitter Monday that “an animal source seems the most likely primary source” with “some limited human-to-human transmission occurring between close contacts.”

    It said the new cases in China were the result of “increased searching and testing for (the virus) among people sick with respiratory illness.”

    Scientists with the MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London warned in a paper published Friday that the number of cases in the city was likely to be closer to 1,700, much higher than the number officially identified.

    Wuhan authorities said they have installed infrared thermometers at airports, railway stations and coach stations across the city. Passengers with fevers were being registered, given masks and taken to medical institutions.

    State TV footage aired Monday showed medical staff working inside an isolation ward at a Wuhan hospital in full-body suits.

    Authorities in Hong Kong have also stepped up virus detection measures at border crossings, including rigorous temperature checks for inbound travelers from the Chinese mainland.

    Passengers are also being screened at some airports in Thailand and the United States.

    In Wuhan, 170 people are still being treated at hospital, including nine in critical condition, the city health commission said, adding that 25 people have been discharged so far.

    Chinese state media moved to calm the mood as discussion about the coronavirus spreading to other Chinese cities swelled on social media.

    Nationalist tabloid Global Times called for better handling of the new virus than that of the 2003 SARS outbreak.

     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
  20. Utopia Realm

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    Welp, outbreak is coming confirmed. Who knows how far this'll spread in the next month or so. And a population like China is going to have cases unconfirmed and people not aware of the virus or prevenative steps to ensure safety from it.
     
  21. mr_shadow Moderator

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    The fourth horseman is "Death", which I guess would have to be something not covered by the other three, like some natural disaster.
     
  22. Saishin

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    China confirms human-to-human transmission of coronavirus

    China’s health ministry has confirmed human-to-human transmission of a mysterious Sars-like virus that has spread across the country and fuelled anxiety about the prospect of a major outbreak as millions begin travelling for lunar new year celebrations.

    Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory expert and head of the national health commission team investigating the outbreak, confirmed that two cases of infection in China’s Guangdong province had been caused by human-to-human transmission and medical staff had been infected, China’s official Xinhua news agency said on Monday.

    Authorities earlier reported 139 new cases of the new strain of coronavirus over the weekend, bringing the total number of infected patients to 217 since the virus was first detected last month in the central city of Wuhan.

    It was also confirmed on Tuesday that an 89-year-old man had died from the virus in Wuhan, bringing the number of fatalities to four.

    Cases were confirmed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong province in the south, heightening fears ahead of the lunar new year holiday, when more than 400 million people are expected to travel domestically and internationally.

    State broadcaster CCTV said on Monday evening there were seven suspected cases in other parts of the country, including Shandong in the east, and the south-western provinces of Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan. Five people who travelled from Wuhan were also being treated for fevers in Zhejiang province.

    “People’s lives and health should be given top priority and the spread of the outbreak should be resolutely curbed,” said China’s president, Xi Jinping, weighing in on the matter for the first time.

    The strain has caused alarm because of its connection to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which killed nearly 650 people across mainland and Hong Kong in 2002-03. The current outbreak has spread to Thailand, Japan and South Korea.

    A man was in isolation in Brisbane, Australia after being suspected of having the virus after he returned from a visit to Wuhan.

    China’s National Health Commission said it had sent working groups to all provinces to oversee outbreak prevention, describing the situation as “controllable”. Hospitals in Shanghai and Beijing and in Zhejiang province have “comprehensively” strengthened examination procedures. In Shenzhen, temperature checks have been put in place in airports, ports and railway stations.

    More than 100 patients with symptoms were waiting to be seen at the Xiehe hospital in Wuhan at 6am on Monday. “If you are coming now, you have to wait between three and four hours before you can see the doctors,” a hospital worker said by phone.

    At a hospital in Chaoyang district in Beijing, patients were being given masks and forms to fill out, detailing any recent travel to Wuhan. A nurse said preventive measures were also being taken to protect doctors

    Coronaviruses are transmitted between animals and people, and the outbreak in Wuhan has been linked to a now-closed seafood market where live animals were reportedly sold.

    The World Health Organization has said an animal source was “the most likely primary source” of the outbreak, with “ occurring between close contacts”. Researchers worry the number of infections .

    The WHO said it would convene an emergency meeting in Geneva on Wednesday to discuss whether the new coronavirus constituted an international health emergency.

    Xi Chen, an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health, said the likelihood of human-to-human transmission had appeared large given how many cases were confirmed. “It’s hard to see all these cases coming from animals at the same market,” Chen said.

    For weeks, the only reported cases were in Wuhan and areas outside mainland China, prompting many people to question whether other cities were simply not reporting or testing for the virus. Some internet users joked the virus appeared to be “patriotic” by only spreading beyond China’s borders.

    Chen said the high cost of testing for diagnosis may have contributed to underreporting.

    Authorities have still not identified the source of the infection, which further complicates the government’s ability to contain the outbreak. The Huanan seafood market, where thousands of traders sold products, has been closed since 1 January. But some of the detected cases are patients with no history of visiting the market.

    “What concerns me is the source of infection. We have no idea. That’s the most important thing. Without knowing that we don’t know the harm, how hard it can be,” Chen said.

    Others fear that authorities have not moved quickly enough to contain the spread of the virus or educate the public. In Wuhan, temperature checkpoints have been installed at the airport and at train stations and bus terminals since 14 January, about five weeks after the virus was first detected.

    Observers and residents worry about the possibility of a cover-up worsening the outbreak, as was the case with Sars in 2003.

    Some residents in Wuhan have been told not to speak to media. The official Weibo account of Wuhan police said on 1 January that eight internet users who spread false information online “causing adverse social impacts” had been dealt with “according to the law”.

    But Chinese health officials have made improvements since the Sars episode. In response to a bird flu outbreak in 2013, authorities quickly worked with the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fresh food markets were shut down but the outbreak was exacerbated by poultry sales into smaller, less-regulated markets.

    The situation is complicated by the fact that farmers are unlikely to be compensated by the government or give up their sick animals.

    “It’s not about a cover-up. Rather it’s about a lack of capacity and about a lack of enforced regulation,” said Nicholas Thomas, associate professor focusing on health security at City University of Hong Kong.

    “At the moment, it is a bad flu. Yes, it is something to be concerned about and it is probably going to get worse in terms of infections and mortality, but again it’s winter,” he said. “It is likely to spread but we are still a long way off the levels of Sars or bird flu.”

    The state-run Global Times said in an editorial on Sunday: “In the early days of Sars, there was a cover-up and delayed reporting. Such things can never be repeated again in China.”

    Authorities have advised residents in the run-up to the lunar new year, which falls on 25 January, to be on the lookout for symptoms including fever, coughs, breathing difficulties and pneumonia.

    Millions of people will crisscross the country during a weeklong public holiday starting on 24 January, in what is known as humanity’s largest migration. Some of those travelling will have set off already.

    The WHO has not recommended any travel restrictions and Chinese authorities have not yet issued any. Still, not all residents were comforted by government assurances.

    “With this huge amount of spring festival travel, why are there not any prevention measures?” one wrote on Weibo. On the Douban forum, another observed that few people at Wuhan train station were wearing masks.

    Traders at the now-closed suspected seafood market in Wuhan said they were not overly worried, seeing the virus as little more than the common cold. “We start early, at 2am or 3am. We put our hands in the cold water. If we catch a cold, we don’t pay it much attention,” said Li, 52, who has operated a stall in Huanan for most of the past decade.

    Li said that starting from late December, the property developer that owned the market asked renters to wear masks to work and avoid going to crowded places. “I’m not worried,” said Li. “My grandchildren all live in Wuhan and we don’t believe it. It’s just rumours.”

    However, Li said some tenants who might have shown symptoms of the virus were unlikely to have reported themselves, fearing the impact on their business and being quarantined. “Most people wouldn’t say if they had it,” he said.

     
  23. dergeist

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    The Horsemen are in the early stages of manifestation for now. There are two horsemen to come, we've yet to see the iron chariots of greatness. May they arrive swiftly and liberate the peoples of this once great land from the clutches of the evil regime.

    Edit: I had better make this disclaimer or somebody will mistake my post on purpose. I'm not wishing war, plague and death on anybody, except the evil Commie regime. I do hope they(common people of China) find a way to improve their situation and health and the masses recover asap.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
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  24. Saishin

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    Rome airport screens for deadly Wuhan virus
    21 Jan, 2020

    Fiumicino airport checks passengers arriving into Italy from Wuhan.

    Rome's Fiumicino airport is screening passengers arriving from the central Chinese city and region of Wuhan following the outbreak of a new fatal virus in China, Italy's health ministry has confirmed.

    Fiumicino has three direct flights from Wuhan, as well as many non-direct flights, with all passengers being checked for "suspected symptomatic cases and their eventual transfer in bio-containment" to Rome's Spallanzani Hospital which specialises in treating infectious diseases, said the health ministry.

    The news follows the death of a fourth person in Wuhan on 21 January and comes as officials confirm that the mystery virus spreads by human-to-human transmission.

    More than 200 people are now affected by the new coronavirus strain which is believed to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan and has since spread to Beijing and Shanghai, with four cases also reported in South Korea, Thailand and Japan.

    The outbreak is causing alarm because the new virus is from the same family as the pathogen that causes SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which killed 650 people across mainland China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003.

    There are fears that the spread of the virus could accelerate as the Chinese New Year travel rush begins, leading the World Health Organisation to convene an emergency summit on 22 January.



    Italy issues travel alert due to fatal Wuhan virus

    Italians warned to avoid unnecessary travel to China.
    Italy's health ministry has urged Italians to postpone unnecessary travel to China amid an outbreak of a mysterious and deadly new virus which has registered over 200 cases and so far resulted in four deaths.

    "If you go to China, to the city of Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, it is recommended to get vaccinated against seasonal flu at least two weeks before your trip. It is also recommended to avoid visiting the markets with fresh food of animal origin, and live animals, and avoid contact with people who have respiratory symptoms."

    While underlining that there is no vaccine for the new virus, Italy's health ministry has advised those travelling in areas at risk to follow a few basic : wash your hands regularly; cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing; wear a face mask; dispose of used tissues immediately after use; avoid raw or undercooked meat, unwashed fruit or vegetables and unbottled drinks; and avoid close contact, when possible, with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory diseases such as coughing and sneezing.

    The ministry also says that a person should seek "immediate medical attention" if they develop respiratory symptoms such as a cough, sore throat or breathing difficulties while in Wuhan.

    Likewise if someone returning to Italy from Wuhan develops respiratory symptoms within 14 days, they should also seek immediate medical advice and inform authorities of their travels.

    The warning comes as officials confirm that the mystery virus spreads by human-to-human transmission, with cases now reported in Japan, Thailand and South Korea.

    Health authorities in Rome are screening passengers arriving from Wuhan into , with the city's Spallanzani hospital for infectious diseases on standby.

     
  25. WT

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    Whilst I hope members of this forum residing in China good health and so too all good men and women, I hope this virus wipes out assholes in that country
     
  26. hammer

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    They have healthcare similar to America so I doubt that will happen
     
  27. wibisana

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    Is this same virus that wipe 30% pig population in China?
     
  28. hammer

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    there's a virus that wipes out 30% of the pigs like every other year.
     
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  29. MrPopo

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    The "re-education" camps could count :maybe
     
  30. Subarashii

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