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U.S. Midterm 2018 General Discussion

Discussion in 'The NF Café' started by Darkmatter, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    2018 is finally here, new year, new opportunities. However, this also means one important event about to happen in November for Americans here in the forum (and everywhere else in the country), which are the Midterm elections. Here's a rundown on what will happen by then:

    • There are 33 Senate Seats up for grab (Senate Class 1).
    • All 435 House of Representative seats up will be up for grab.
    • State Governorship and other local Elections (varies from state to state).

    Feel free to discuss anything between local elections to national.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2018
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  2. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    Florida happens to be one of the states with the governorship up for election, as well as Senator Bill Nelson's seat and all of the Representatives in the state.

    I am unsure if Bill Nelson is willing to try and defend his seat or let a new comer pick up his torch, so I'll have to keep an ear out on that one.
    My representative (Kathy Castor) has been fairly good too, but I'm unsure if she'll defend her seat or retire yet.
    Rick Scott has been a fucking atrocious Governor. He fucked Education and Health care for lower-income class. However, what didn't helped was that many of his opponents also happened to be utter shit. For him to run for Senate (if he confirms it) is a terrifying thought given his horrible track record.

    As far as I'm concerned, Jack Latvala declared his Governorship Campaign for Florida, but I don't think we'll be seeing him between sexual allegations and potential corruption (he resigned as State Senator too).
     
  3. Vermilion Kn Eldric Draconik

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    The Dems should spank the GOP this year but I have 0 faith in their weak asses. I'm looking forward to seeing how the tax plan affects people and should it lead to disaster how the GOP and Trump will spin it.
     
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  4. Mider T VM Zombie

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    >Asks mr_shadow to make this thread
    >He says wait until later in the year
    >Makes the thread anyway

    :hestonpls
     
  5. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    IIR, I don't think the Tax Plan will come in effect until next year, but I could be wrong. :hm

    I didn't asked for him to make the thread, I only asked if this thread would either go in the Cafe or the Debate. :pek
     
  6. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    No, I said he could make a debate thread if he wanted to (which this is), but hold off on making a thread in the main Café until we have some actual hard news to discuss.
     
  7. Mider T VM Zombie

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    Anyway yeah Scott has been terrible like most governors named Rick. Santorum, Perry, the list goes on.

    Edit: Santorum was a Senator, whoops.
     
  8. Lucy75 I love lucy

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    Dems should take back at least the house by next year.
     
  9. baconbits SSL or nothing Retired Staff

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    No, he asked if he could make this in the Cafe. Shadow said no news was out so if he wanted to discuss the midterms make make a thread in the debate corner. He did nothing wrong making this thread.
     
  10. Mider T VM Zombie

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    Apparently Darkmatter asked if he could make this thread in the Cafe, and was told to hold off until any news was out. He could, however, create a thread about the elections in the Debate Corner in the meantime.
     
  11. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    :apathy

    I only said if it goes on the Cafe or the Debate. Nobody told me to hold off until there were any news. :apathy
     
  12. Mider T VM Zombie

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    Okay I'm fully clarified now.:obamabury
     
  13. mr_shadow Minister of State Security Moderator

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    Unlikely because districts are still gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans.

    House district boundaries are re-drawn following each United States census, which happens once every even 10 years. Last time was in 2010 and next time will be in 2020.

    For inexplicable reasons, a majority of states (28/50) let the state legislature decide the district boundaries, meaning they have an opportunity to rig ("gerrymander") boundaries in favor of whichever party holds the state legislature majority in the census year. The Supreme Court ruled in 2004 that Gerrymandering is not in principle unconstitutional.





    So more important than any federal election like Trump vs Hillary or the 2018 midterms, is to have a majority of state legislatures in 2020, so you can gerrymander the House in your favor for the next 10 years. Like the Republicans were able to do in 2010.

    The current standings are that Republicans hold 32 state legislatures while the Democrats hold 14. The remaining 4 are "split" with each party holding one chamber. In other words, in the worst-case scenario the Democrats might need to win an additional 12 state legislatures (24%) before 2020 to tip the scales in their favor.

    While we keep saying Trump is the most unpopular president ever, improving your result by 24% in the span of just two years would be a massive feat.
     
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  14. Lucy75 I love lucy

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    Dems had this problem in Virginia and still cleaned house there. So I'm optimistic.
     
  15. EJ T A H I T I

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    If we get the same standard Democrats then yeah I have 0 faith in them. They are pretty much just going to be anti Trump but offer solutions that aren't really substantial.
     
  16. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    Had to quickly look him up, turns out to be another one of those Tea-Party hacks with outdated and shitty policies. Another thing is that he's been endorsed by Trump, which we tend to have a lot of Trumptards around here.
     
  17. The Kamal Haasan Crazy Hour Well-Known Member

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    So they are like you when you refuse to explore a more full spectrum of ideas in order to becime a better political operative.
     
  18. EJ T A H I T I

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    Interesting read.
     
  19. Lord Stark Warden of the North

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    Dems need to offer a good solid alternative. My faith in the blue wave is not strong though as things stand. Schumer may fuck this all up with this immigration debate. This motherfucker may give Trump the goddamned wall.
     
  20. Darkmatter Lion's Sin of Pride

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    They need to follow what's popular among the American people: Single Payer Healthcare, Free College (or at the very least, affordable), stuffs like that.
    Playing it safe or being "anti-Trump" isn't enough unfortunately, that's why it's better to just take the risk the same way the Republicans did with Trump.
     
  21. Tarot XVIII. La Luna

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  22. CrazyAries Truth Hurts

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    I was thinking about sharing that link but I didn’t know where and I forgot that this thread existed.

    That’s a pretty long read, but it’s well worth the time to look at it.

    The title says it all.

    But here are some key passages:

    Under the section “How Much Money Can You Raise?”

    Under “Why It Matters”

     
  23. CrazyAries Truth Hurts

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    Part 2

    This passage should interest @hcheng02:

    Under “It Feels Like Déjà Vu”:

    In Summary: The Democratic Party’s leadership is centrist by design and in turn it seeks other centrists to represent the party in elections across the country. This is in part reflected in who the DCCC and Democratically-affiliated groups choose to endorse in House races. While some changes are being made, they are slow, the most recent changes are there to help centrist incumbents and challengers and there is still a huge premium being put on fundraising.

    People who are to the left of the party’s leadership have a tough road ahead because they will generally not have the support of the party’s national apparatus. However, they might still have a chance depending on how they campaign and where they’re campaigning.
     
  24. hcheng02 Well-Known Member

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    If the voters can pull off primarying Democratic voters who are insufficiently progressive AND be able to elect them to office in the midterms, then more power to them. However, if they primary the centrists only to lose the general midterms, we will be at a disadvantage. Lets see what happens.
     
  25. CrazyAries Truth Hurts

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    Okay, but that was not what I was hinting at. One of the parts I quoted from The Intercept article showed how the Democratic Party's leadership is willing to back conservative Democrats who oppose abortion. I recall that we were arguing about how Democrats could tailor a message in red states to appeal to people who hated abortion, without going against the "Safe, Rare, and Legal" party line.

    Here's the quote again:

    In 2017, there was a dust-up over Heath Mello. Many liberals agreed that Mello should not have been promoted by the Democratic Party based on his votes to restrict abortions. Shouldn't the same be true for Brad Ashford, who voted the same way for the same bills?
     
  26. Alwaysmind 总是心神

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    Hard to believe that the election of 2020 will commence next year.
     
  27. Tarot XVIII. La Luna

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    Primaries are coming up soon guys. Remember to research candidates, volunteer, donate, and get others to vote in your state too.
     
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  28. EJ T A H I T I

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    For those in the Maryland area seeking to back progressives:





    Stay aware of Kevin Kamenetz, and Ben Jealous (former President of the NAACP, but is seeking to unite progressives with the establishment side of the Democratic Party, which leaves me kind of skeptical).



    I want to be knowledgeable about what they are backing and how they are being funded.
     
  29. Tarot XVIII. La Luna

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    So we had some minor victories in Illinois during the primary but not as much as I'd hoped, but I got to see how much centrist dems and conservatives will team up to take out left-wing candidates.

    Marie Newman was a progressive fighting to unseat democrat Dan Lipinsky. Since this was the same district where that Neo-nazi was running on the republican ticket, a lot conservative groups were urging republican voters for Lipinsky in the democratic race. Lipinsky also had massive backing from Mike Madigan (The Illinois democratic chair), who actively attacked progressive candidates during the candidates.



    The other thing that sucked was that we had a really low turnout. You guys need to make sure to get your boots on the ground and get people to vote early as your primaries get closer in your states.
     
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  30. Mider T VM Zombie

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    For all the hollering, so-called "progressives" really tend to skip out on donating and primaries.
     
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